Dynamic Safety Assessment and Enhancement of Port Operational Infrastructure Systems during the COVID-19 Era

Seaports function as lifeline systems in maritime transportation, facilitating critical processes like shipping, distribution, and allied cargo handling. These diverse subsystems constitute the Port Infrastructure System (PIS) and have intricate functional interdependencies. The PIS is vulnerable to several external disruptions, and the impact of COVID-19 is severe and unprecedented in this domain. Therefore, this study proposes a novel general port safety framework to cope with recurring hazards and crisis events like COVID-19 and to augment PIS safety through a multi-state failure system. The PIS is divided into three critical subsystems: shipping, terminal, and distribution infrastructure, thereby capturing its functional interdependency and intricacy. A dynamic input-output model is employed, incorporating the spatial variability and average delay of the disruption, to determine the PIS resilience capacity under the stated disruptions. This study simulates three disruption scenarios and determines the functional failure capacity of the system by generating a functional change curve in Simulink. This study offers viable solutions to port managers, terminal operators, and concerned authorities in the efficient running of intricate interdependent processes and in devising efficient risk control measures to enhance overall PIS resilience and reliability. As part of future studies, given the difficulty in obtaining relevant data and the relatively limited validation of the current model, we aim to improve the accuracy and reliability of our model and enhance its practical applicability to real-world situations with data collected from a real-world case study of a PIS system.

Performance of environmentally sound cassava farming as an effort to increase income after covid 19 in the Bengawan Solo Wonogiri Watershed

The limited sources of income in the Wonogiri Regency will impact the tendency of repressive community actions towards empowering surrounding resources, including cassava farmers. After Covid 19, the cassava economy was used as leverage for changes in the rural economy. The objectives of this study are (1) to determine the influence of environmental management on the inputs and outputs of cassava farming, (2) to diagnose fluctuations in the vulnerability of cassava farming, and (3) to analyze cassava problems in production and farming sub-systems. The research locations were in 2 subwatershed of Bengawan Solo areas, namely the Keduang Sub-Watershed (Ngadirojo District and Jatiroto District) and the Wiroko Sub-Watershed (Tirtomoyo District), with 120 respondents. The analysis used is the input-output analysis of farming, descriptive analysis, and t-test analysis. The results showed a difference between an environmentally sound cassava farming business and one that does not, with an error rate of 1% and a coefficient of 1,802% in terms of income (output) and cost (input). The vulnerability occurs when cassava cultivation is processed on a sharp slope of the soil, making it highly costly. The performance of environmentally sound cassava farming positively impacts production and income, but there are limited funds and technology.

Implementation of seasonal differences and sociodemographic factors on the achievement of agribusiness MSME output in the Bengawan Solo Wonogiri Watershed

The socioeconomic characteristics of the community in the Bengawan Solo Hulu watershed allow the agribusiness MSMEs business process to occur in production and significantly impact aspects of socioeconomic life. The limited reliable sources of income will affect the community's tendency to repressive actions. The purpose of the study is (1) to determine the sociodemographic conditions of agribusiness MSME households, (2) to determine the effect of the season on the achievement of agribusiness MSME output, and (3) to find out the solutions of Agribusiness MSMEs. The research method used was a survey on Agribusiness MSMEs by taking locations in 2 Sub-watershed, Alangunggahan Sub-Watershed (Eramoko District) and Keduang Sub-Watershed (Jatipurno District and Jatisrono District) with a total sample of 60 MSMEs. The analysis used is the input-output analysis and Econometric analysis. The results showed that the R2 value was 87.14%, the F test was significant at 95%, and all sociodemographic variables were significant except the age factor of Agribusiness MSME actors. There is a significant seasonal difference in the achievement of agribusiness MSME output. This phenomenon indicates that post-Covid, efforts have risen from the Covid 19, and seasonal differences are considered in decision-making efforts to increase output achievements in the Agribusiness MSME.

Economic Recovery Strategy of Sectoral Industries Post-COVID-19: Input-Output Model Simulations

The global COVID-19 pandemic has suppressed the economy and people's welfare, including in Indonesia and Central Java Province, as indicated by the weakening of the national economy by -2.06 percent and locally by -2.65 percent in 2020. Although the economy grew by 3.32 percent in 2021, societal welfare remains lower than in 2019, marked by an increase in unemployment and poverty throughout 2019-2021. Furthermore, the threat of COVID-19 including new variants of the virus continues to weigh on the economy, in 2022 and beyond. This study considered an industrial approach to production, based on inter-industrial linkages and policy simulations with input-output analysis. The objectives of this research are to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy of Central Java and to formulate an effective economic recovery policy for industry. The results show that the industries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in Central Java can promote recovery of overall income in economic industry better than the leading industry and the industries with the highest output multipliers, expressed as a proportional increase in final demand for each industry. Meanwhile, the economic recovery strategy of increasing final demand in industries with high output multipliers results in a faster increase in economic output compared with increasing final demand in the affected industries or leading industries.

The economic contribution of the cultural sector in Brazil: an input-output approach with different income groups

Brazil is characterized by strong income inequality, which is naturally reflected in the consumption of goods and services. Such disparities in access are also reproduced in the artistic and cultural activities sector. Thus, understanding the cultural sector as key to the development of society, the present article evaluates the intersectoral impact of the artistic and cultural activities sector on other sectors of the Brazilian economy. First, this analysis identifies the effects of COVID-19, which allows us to determine how the sector is affected by such a shock in terms of output, employment and income. Subsequently, the relevance of the cultural sector is evaluated by identifying different family income groups with the 2015 input-output matrix published by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and information from the Family Budget Survey (POF). The main results indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic, specifically, its effect on the cultural sector, reduced the production of cultural activities by 31.8%, equating to a loss of 237,701 jobs. This result indicates the relevance of the cultural sector for the Brazilian economy. In addition, we show that low income families, a group representing more than 70% of households, are responsible for only 28% of all Brazilian household consumption in the cultural sector. However, families in the highest income bracket, i.e. less than 3% of households, account for 22% of this sector. This result underscores the importance of developing public policies to stimulate consumption among low income groups, given that in addition to the cultural sector's economic benefits, there are intangible benefits of cultural activity for society.

Drivers of employment effects in tourism-related sectors: the case of Mainland China

PurposeTourism is a labor-intensive sector with extensive links to other industries and plays a vital role in creating employment. This study aims to propose a new framework to analyze the intrinsic structure of the employment effects of tourism-related sectors and their drivers.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses input–output and structural decomposition analysis (IO-SDA) to quantify the employment effects of tourism-related sectors and their driving mechanisms based on China's I-O tables of 2002, 2007, 2012 and 2017.FindingsThe results show a declining trend in the intensity of direct or indirect employment effects in tourism-related sectors, indicating a decreasing number of jobs directly or indirectly required to create a unit of tourism output. Among tourism-related sectors, catering has the highest intensity of indirect employment effects over the study period. Catering stimulates the indirect employment of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and food and tobacco manufacturing. The decomposition analysis reveals that final demand is the largest contributor to the increase in tourism employment, while technological progress shifts from an employment-creation effect in 2002–2012 to an employment-destruction effect in 2012–2017.Originality/valueThis study proposes a new analytical framework to investigate the structural proportional relationship between the direct and indirect employment effects of various tourism-related sectors and their dynamic changes. Doing so, it provides valuable references for policymakers to promote tourism employment.

On the employment and health impact of the COVID-19 shock on Italian regions: a value chain approach

We evaluate the exposure of Italian regions to employment and the health risk associated with the spread of COVID-19. First, we estimate the degree of participation of Italian regions in a plurality of value chains linked to consumption, investment and exports. Second, we investigate the different levels of contagion risk associated with each value chain and the possibility of reducing such risk through remote work. We find that regions are affected differently by lockdown policies because of their highly heterogeneous embeddedness in different value chains, and their diverse sectoral contributions to each of them. © 2023 Regional Studies Association.

Girdi-Çıktı Analizinde Varsayımsal Çıkarma Yöntemi: Batı Akdeniz Bölgesi'nde (TR61) Sektörel Kapanmanın Etki Analizi 1

Bu çalışmada sektörel kapanmaların Batı Akdeniz Bölgesi (TR61-Antalya, Isparta, Burdur) üzerindeki ekonomik etkileri varsayımsal çıkarma yöntemi ile analiz edilmiştir. Ayrıca, çıktı ve hanehalkı çarpanları ile hem geleneksel hem de varsayımsal çıkarma yöntemi kullanılarak bulunan geri ve ileri baǧlantı ölçüleri, kapanmanın etkilerini ve çıkış yollarını çözümleyebilmek için bir arada yorumlanmıştır. Bu amaca yönelik olarak 2017 yılı için kurulmuş bölgesel Girdi-Çıktı tablosu kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları, kapanmasının bölge ekonomisi üzerinde en fazla küçülme yarattıǧı sektörlerin turizm, taşımacılık ve lojistik, tarım, gıda sanayii ve inşaat sektörleri olduǧuna işaret etmektedir. Ayrıca, turizm sektörünün kapanmasının, en fazla olumsuz etkilediǧi sektör balıkçılık sektörü olmuştur.Alternate :This study analyses the economic effects of the sectoral lockdowns on the Western Mediterranean Region (TR61-Antalya, Isparta, Burdur) in Türkiye by employing the Hypothetical Extraction Method-HEM. The analyses used the year-2017 regional input-output table established for TR61. In addition, the study interprets the output and household income multipliers with the forward and backward linkage coefficients estimated by both the conventional approach and the HEM to find the impacts of lock-down and measures to recover. The study's findings point out that the sectoral lockdown created the most significant contraction in the region in tourism, transportation and logistics, agriculture, food industry and construction sectors. Moreover, the fishing sector is the sector most negatively affected by the lockdown of the tourism sector.

GLOBAL PRODUCTION NETWORKS IN THE REGIONAL ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK: CASE OF THE EU PERIPHERAL AUTOMOTIVE MANUFACTURING

Recent transformations following the global financial crisis of 2009, COVID-19 pandemic, supply chains disruptions and newest shocks have radically reshaped global production landscape and challenged comparative benefits of global production networks (GPN) vs global value chains (GVC) paradigms in international production analysis. The study tests the hypothesis that GPN concept allows for a better identification of structural shifts in international production structures while revealing regional patterns of cooperation. In the first section, the main methodological constraints of GVC paradigm are specified. Additionally, the reasons for the application of network-based approach to international production are outlined. The second section dissects the EU automotive manufacturing to support the theoretical propositions. While comparing GVC and GPN quantitative toolkits, the possible trade-off has been reached which is to calculate network indicators (transitivity, centrality, etc.) on the inter-country input-output tables. As a result, the hypothesis was confirmed. Specifically, betweenness centrality metric suggests that Czechia and Slovakia have immediately favoured a positive effect of the entry into the EU, whereas neither of GVC indicators reveals such a shift. Simultaneously, 2008 crisis is depicted via GVC indicators, whilst network metrics suggest no structural changes in the production system. These results corroborate to our theoretical juxtaposition of GVC/GPN approaches. The methodological cohesion of two sets of indicators further advances the views on European regional core-periphery integration and automotive production networks dynamics. At the same time, the findings may contribute to the reassessment of regional integration developments in Europe, as well as in Latin America and Eurasia. © González G. H., Sapir E. V., Vasilchenko A. D. Text. 2023.

Potenciální produkt a mezera výstupu v období ekonomických krizí

The article investigates potential output and output gap modelling and estimation in the Czech Republic in the period 1996-2021, including the global recession from 2008 and the recent crisis caused by government measures against the COVID-19 pandemic. The unobserved components (UC) methodology is applied, coefficients are estimated by the maximum likelihood method, unobserved variables are estimated using the Kalman filter. The standard UC model is modified in an original way to nonlinearly describe the hysteresis effect by allowing the output gap to have an asymmetrical influence on potential output. The econometric model verification proved significance of the hysteresis effect and showed a substantial inertia of negative consequences of both crises. Predictions of an impact of the War in Ukraine on the gap were also calculated and the uncertainty associated with these predictions was quantified.

Multiregional, multi-industry impacts of fairness on pandemic policies.

The health and economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic highlights the necessity for a deeper understanding and investigation of state- and industry-level mitigation policies. While different control strategies in the early stages, such as lockdowns and school and business closures, have helped decrease the number of infections, these strategies have had an adverse economic impact on businesses and some controversial impacts on social justice. Therefore, optimal timing and scale of closure and reopening strategies are required to prevent both different waves of the pandemic and the negative socioeconomic impact of control strategies. This article proposes a novel multiobjective mixed-integer linear programming formulation, which results in the optimal timing of closure and reopening of states and industries in each. The three objectives being pursued include: (i) the epidemiological impact of the pandemic in terms of the percentage of the infected population; (ii) the social vulnerability index of the pandemic policy based on the vulnerability of communities to getting infected, and for losing their job; and (iii) the economic impact of the pandemic based on the inoperability of industries in each state. The proposed model is implemented on a dataset that includes 50 states, the District of Columbia, and 19 industries in the United States. The Pareto-optimal solutions suggest that for any control decision (state and industry closure or reopening), the economic impact and the epidemiological impact change in the opposite direction.

Tourist activity importance in Mexico: an assesment of the economic eecovery prospective effects during the post-pandemic

The purpose of this paper is to build a multisectoral impacts framework derived from de economic contraction faced by tourism in the Covid-19 pandemic context. For this, is used an Input-Output Model updated with the 2019 economic census values complemented with the Mexico ' s National Accounts data. The objective is reaching a characterization before and after the closure of tourist activities. The results obtained through hypothetical extraction techniques, in impact simulation, show the gross value product contraction magnitude by subsector, also they allow to get a measure in order to reach a faster economic recovery along all the activities linked to tourism.

The Impact of Industrial Linkage Structures on Urban Economic Resilience in China in the Context of the COVID-19 Shock

The structures of industrial linkages form an essential basis for the economy and have an important impact on urban economic resilience. By analyzing the impact of COVID-19 on China's urban economy in 2020, this study uses China's national input-output table to measure the centrality and diversity of industrial linkage structures. Extracted data from 298 cities in China are used to explore the impact of centrality and diversity on urban economic resilience. The results show that the cities in East China, Central China, and the Chengdu-Chongqing area in western China have a high centrality with respect to industrial linkage structures. Cities in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River city cluster, and the Chengdu-Chongqing city cluster have a high diversity of industrial linkages structures. During the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, most cities in China have shown high economic resilience. For cities across the country, diversity shows a significant and positive correlation with economic resilience, and centrality shows a significant and positive correlation with economic resilience. The latter displays an inverted U-shaped relationship between centrality and economic resilience. For cities with different population sizes, there are differences in the impacts of centrality and diversity on urban economic resilience. Different industrial policies can be developed to adjust the centrality and diversity of the cities to enhance urban economic resilience.

What can we learn from the 2008 financial crisis for global power decarbonization after COVID-19?

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, power generation and the associated CO2 emissions in major countries have experienced a decline and rebound. Knowledge on how an economic crisis affects the emission dynamics of the power sector would help alleviate the emission rebound in the post-COVID-19 era. In this study, we investigate the mechanism by which the 2008 global financial crisis sways the dynamics of power decarbonization. The method couples the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) and environmentally extended input-output analysis. Results show that, from 2009 to 2011, global power generation increased rapidly at a rate higher than that of GDP, and the related CO2 emissions and the emission intensity of global electricity supply also rebounded;the rapid economic growth in fossil power-dominated countries (e.g., China, the United States, and India) was the main reason for the growth of electricity related CO2 emissions;and the fixed capital formation was identified as the major driver of the rebound in global electricity consumption. Lessons from the 2008 financial crisis can provide insights for achieving a low-carbon recovery after the COVID-19 crisis, and specific measures have been proposed, for example, setting electricity consumption standards for infrastructure construction projects to reduce electricity consumption induced by the fixed capital formation, and attaching energy efficiency labels and carbon footprint labels to metal products (e.g., iron and steel, aluminum, and fabricated metal products), large quantities of which are used for fixed capital formation. © 2023 The Authors

A resilience analysis of the contraction of the accommodation and food service sector on the Scottish food industry

The Scottish economy, such as the United Kingdom (UK) economy, has been exposed to several adverse shocks over the past 5 years. Examples of these are the effect of the United Kingdom exiting the European Union (Brexit), the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and more recently Russia–Ukraine war, which can result in adverse direct and indirect economic losses across various sectors of the economy. These shocks disrupted the food and drink supply chains. The purpose of this article is 3-fold: (1) to explore the degree of resilience of the Scottish food and drink sector, (2) to estimate the effects on interconnected sectors of the economy, and (3) to estimate the economic losses, which is the financial value associated with the reduction in output. This article focuses on the impact that the sudden contraction that the "accommodation and food service activities”, resulting from the pandemic, had on the food and drink sectors. For this analysis, the study relied on the dynamic inoperability input–output model (DIIM), which takes into account the relationships across the different sectors of the Scottish economy over time. The results indicate that the accommodation and food service sector was the most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown contracting by approximately 60%. The DIIM shows that the disruption to this sector had a cascading effect on the remaining 17 sectors of the economy. The processed and preserved fish, fruits, and vegetable sector is the least resilient, while preserved meat and meat product sector is the most resilient to the final demand disruption in the accommodation and food service sector. The least economically affected sector was the other food product sector, while the other service sector had the highest economic loss. Although the soft drink sector had a slow recovery rate, economic losses were lower compared to the agricultural, fishery, and forestry sectors. From the policy perspective, stakeholders in the accommodation and food service sector should re-examine the sector and develop capacity against future pandemics. In addition, it is important for economic sectors to collaborate either vertically or horizontally by sharing information and risk to reduce the burden of future disruptions. Finally, the most vulnerable sectors of the economy, i.e., other service sectors should form a major part of government policy decision-making when planning against future pandemics. Copyright © 2023 Revoredo-Giha and Dogbe.

Current Research Trends in Commerce and Management: A Survey 2022

Current Research Trends in Commerce and Management: A Survey 2022 By K L Narasimha Murthy Gyan Publishing House, New Delhi, India, Pages: 340, Price: ?990 ISBN: 978-81-212-6475-4 (Print) PREMISE The book has covered new age concepts and approaches, in the area of environment, development, management, governance, and technology, with significant contribution in contemporary and topical scenarios, in the present world economies, and hold a great insights in approaches and applications in current research trends in Commerce and Management, for the research scholars, students, teachers, NGO sector, national and international organizations. Circular economy can play a yeoman's role in the preservation of environment, lowers emissions, consumes minimal natural resources, produce lower trash and facilitate waste to wealth, drives employment growth, innovations, and propel higher economic growth, promotes resource independence, safeguarding life and well being. The book also identified new areas of research in CSR, community development, innovative insurance strategies, AI in healthcare, cost benefit, input output analysis, operation research, new perspective in growth and development strategies, sustainability and green economy, to remain at the forefront of time and space.

Emissions intensity comparisons and consumption-based CO2 accounting of transportation services

As the international division of labour becomes more entrenched, the distance goods travel before they reach the final consumer increases;at least this was the case before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. International trade and cross-border cargo movements generate significant carbon emissions. Despite theoretical advances, empirical studies frequently draw contradictory conclusions and the influence of international trade on a country's decarbonization efforts is inconclusive. This study examines the carbon emissions caused by countries' transportation services on global value chains. The input–output (IO) model and the 2015 multi-regional environmental input–output table from the UNCTAD-Eora database are employed. The input–output approach was used to determine the carbon emissions generated by the transport sector, along global value chains, in 190 countries. Environmentally extended IO analysis then reallocates emissions responsibilities of the transport sector from production to consumption. The study identifies which country's transport sectors add more value or emit more CO2. Our findings indicated that: (1) the transportation industry of a country may have a detrimental effect on the environment while generating minimal economic benefit;and (2) a country's transport industry may be tightly related to global value chain operations, but does not create considerable environmental impact. Given the significant differences in emissions intensity, we propose not only calculating the production-based accounting (PBA) of CO2 emissions, but also the consumption-based accounting (CBA). If CBA emissions are lower than PBA emissions, a country's transport sector is in carbon-leakage credit. The top three countries with the highest carbon-leakage credit for the transport sector were China, Russia and USA. If carbon emissions are taken into consideration, some nations may cease to possess a comparative advantage in manufacturing and trade. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.

Intervention policy influence on the effect of epidemiological crisis on industry-level production through input–output networks

During a global epidemiological crisis, lockdowns and border closures substantially disrupt international supply chains, underscoring the importance of choosing an intervention policy that accounts for the unique structure of input–output linkages among domestic industries. This study develops a pioneering mathematical model to quantify the role of pandemic-related intervention policies in the economic impact of a pandemic outbreak in an economy where sectors are complements throughout input–output networks. Our approach is based on three pillars — epidemiological, social, and economic sub-models. Moreover, we present in silico computer simulations to examine the influence of work capsules, work-from-home, vaccination, and industry closure on the damage a pandemic could inflict on output at the industry level. A comparison between work capsules and work-from-home policies shows that the latter decreases economic loss much more than the former. Compared to a state without interventions, a work-from-home policy affecting 12% of the workforce will decrease output loss by 1.4 percentage points during an epidemiological crisis following a COVID-19-like outbreak. Under the constraint of choosing one intervention policy, vaccination significantly reduces the loss of output, particularly in industries that require close customer–seller contacts. In the analysis of scenarios of integrating intervention policies, it is found that, using direct marginal contribution as the measure, the vaccination intervention is approximately 4.5 times more effective at reducing output loss than the work-from-home intervention. © 2023 Elsevier Ltd

LOW-CARBON INDUSTRIAL POLICY IN TURBULENT TIMES: THE CASE OF RUSSIA

The impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the increase in the average temperature on the planet and the risk of initiating irreversible processes are recognized by most of the scientific community as real threats to humanity. Many countries have a legal and institutional framework for a consistent industrial policy taking into account the climate and environmental components, including carbon accounting. Russia is a country with high intensity of production-based CO2 emissions. In is well-known that the industry generates necessary hence it induce demand for products from other sectors of the economy. Environmental and social parameters in the formation of industrial policy should not be considered as any limitations for the development of industry. Despite a serious change in the agenda for the industrial policy in recent years, caused by COVID-19 and by current geopolitical situation in the world, it is highly undesirable to lag behind in this area, since it is necessary for international cooperation and human technological development. Low-carbon areas correspond to the modern ideology of industrial policy for many countries. The novelty of the study is the evaluation of the total GHG (greenhouse gases) intensity of Russias industry by means of intersectoral model. The paper analyses some of industrial policy measures and their implementation that affect low-carbon economic development. The proposed study could be of interest for other economies aiming to reduce their carbon footprint. © 2022 International Multidisciplinary Scientific Geoconference. All rights reserved.

Initial Assessment of the Impact of the SARS-CoV-19 on Tourism in Mexico

The main objectives of this document were to evaluate the impact of SARS-CoV-19 on the tourism industry and infer the share of tourism GDP in Mexico's national GDP. Information from the input-output matrix and the tourism satellite account was used. Results show that, when all tourism disappears, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreases by 8.98%. By simulating a probable scenario of recovery of tourist activity for the year 2021 of 25%, the tourism GDP increases by 9% and for a scenario of 50%, GDP rises to 12%. It is suggested to project recovery plans in the local hotel and restaurant industries. The originality consisted in building a tourism input-output matrix based on data and information from the tourism satellite account. The main limitation is that we only worked with data from 2013, the most recent published by INEGI. It is recommended to replicate the study for tourism activity not only in GDP but also in employment and wages. © 2021 The Author(s).